Who Will Win the 2026 Ballon d’Or?

Last week, Mr. Old Man wrote an article titled “Messi – Mbappé – Haaland: Who Will Win the Ballon d’Or?” and boldly predicted that the award would most likely go to the biggest star of the team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Well… just a few days later, the picture has changed dramatically.

First, England sent Norway and Haaland packing. Then today, Spain defeated France 2–0, knocking Mbappé out of the World Cup final.

That leaves Haaland virtually out of the Ballon d’Or race. As for Mbappé, his hopes are still alive—but only just. He’ll first need to help France finish third and then probably score another couple of goals. Easier said than done!

Tomorrow morning, it’s Argentina versus England. If Argentina win, Messi gets on the scoresheet, and then leads his team to the World Cup title, football fans may witness something truly extraordinary—a record ninth Ballon d’Or for El Pulga. But if Argentina fall short, the story changes completely.

As for Spain, after today’s performance against France, Mr. Old Man has to make a small U-turn. Their defence looked rock solid, they controlled the game with remarkable composure, and right now they deserve to be considered the favourites to win the World Cup.

Mr. Old Man is now leaning towards Spain beating either England or Argentina in the final.

But here’s the interesting part…

Winning the World Cup does not automatically guarantee winning the Ballon d’Or.

If Spain lift the trophy thanks to their outstanding teamwork rather than one dominant individual, while Messi or Mbappé produce a spectacular finish to the tournament, the Ballon d’Or race could still go right down to the wire.

It looks like we’ll know the World Cup champion first… while the Ballon d’Or will remain an open question for a little longer.

— Mr. Old Man