Messi – Mbappé – Haaland: Who Will Win the Ballon d’Or?

It is probably still too early to say who will win the 2026 Ballon d’Or.

But Mr. Old Man has a simple prediction: the Ballon d’Or will most likely go to the biggest star of the team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

Messi and Argentina have survived both Cape Verde and Egypt to reach the quarter-finals, thanks in large part to Messi’s brilliance. But let’s be honest—both matches gave Argentina fans more than a few heart-stopping moments.

Mbappé and Haaland are different. The moment they step onto the pitch, you can already feel the danger. The crowd always has the same feeling:

“It’s only a matter of time before they score.”

Messi, on the other hand, never gives you that sense of certainty. Instead, he keeps everyone on the edge of their seats before suddenly producing a moment of magic that changes the game.

France have looked outstanding at this World Cup—devastating in attack and solid in defence. In Mr. Old Man’s opinion, they currently have a better chance of lifting the trophy than Argentina. If France do become world champions, Mbappé will almost certainly win the Ballon d’Or—the award many believe he came very close to winning after the 2022 World Cup.

Norway have Haaland, but they are clearly not among the top favourites to win the tournament. However, if Norway were somehow to become world champions, it would rank among the greatest upsets in World Cup history. And in that case, the Ballon d’Or would surely belong to Haaland.

What about Messi?

He could certainly win a ninth Ballon d’Or if Argentina successfully defend their World Cup title. But judging by Argentina’s performances so far, Mr. Old Man thinks that will be an enormous challenge, as the team still relies far too heavily on Messi.

Another interesting scenario: what if Spain or England win the World Cup? Would Mikel Oyarzabal or Harry Kane have enough to claim the Ballon d’Or?

Mr. Old Man thinks… probably not.

Because winning the Ballon d’Or requires more than just lifting trophies. It also demands an extraordinary season and the kind of global aura that captures the imagination of voters.

The World Cup decides who lifts the trophy. The Ballon d’Or, however, requires something more than trophies—it also requires aura. And when it comes to aura, Messi, Mbappé and Haaland are still in a league of their own.

Let’s wait and see!

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Mr. Old Man